The Enthusiast Oscars Extravaganza Comes to Its Thrilling Conclusion!
And we're back! If you've stuck with our program to make it through the first two hours, these final thoughts are for you! Here's part one in case you need a recap, but otherwise, let’s pick it right back up where we left off with some picks for the pretty awards…
Best Costume/Best Makeup
My Pick: Barbie for Best Costume Design, Poor Things for Best Hair & Makeup
Likely Winner: Poor Things for both
Best Costume Design has always been one of my favorite awards, because it’s one where true genius and artfulness is regularly rewarded. For one, Edith Head holds the record with eight wins, and Ruth Carter is the current title holder with wins for her masterful work in both Black Panther movies. Recent winners have also included Cruella and Mad Max: Fury Road, bucking the trend of the traditional historical dramas that usually win. Quality is the key here, and it is almost always well-rewarded in this category.
Obviously I’m pulling for Barbie for Best Costumes, primarily due to the meticulous curation and re-creation of some all-time great Barbie outfits. Even some of the more obscure ones made it in, from creepy pregnant Midge and totally not-gay Earring Magic Ken. Nominee Jacqueline Duran won most recently for Greta Gerwig’s Little Women, and I love when directors have go-to experts they work with consistently for excellent results.
However, Poor Things was also on some next-level shit in the costume department, so I’d honestly love for first-time nominee Holly Waddington to get the win. So many lush textures and bizarre materials and dramatic shapes, all of which lent to a sumptuousness to what could have been a fairly cold, clinical approach in the hands of a normie. I don’t know about y’all, but I’ve never seen semi-translucent medical-grade latex look so sophisticated. And while I’m meh on most of the makeup nominees overall, I also think Poor Things should win solely on the merits of Willem Dafoe’s incredible yet startlingly believable makeup (it took six hours to apply!) as the deranged and deformed but somehow lovable Dr. Godwin Baxter.
Best Production Design
My Pick: Barbie
Likely Winner: Poor Things
Apparently nominations for Costume and Production Design regularly overlap, and it’s especially true this year with the same five movies nominated for both. While I do think Poor Things could probably win for Costume and definitely win for Makeup, I am ADAMANT that the Barbie production design team wins every single award possible because like 75% of that movie is actually *not* CGI, like most of Poor Things felt: they built that beautiful, brilliant Barbie world by hand.
The glossy, immobile plastic waves rising out of the sea? Not CGI. The various boats and vehicles that form the bridge between Barbie Land to The Real World, including the old-timey theatre-style sets? Conceived and constructed by human beings. All the Barbie dream houses with no stairs, the Weird Barbie Fortress of Solitude and Home for Fellow Weirds on the outskirts of town? Barbie’s little convertible for which she’s just a tad too big because that’s the level this team was operating at? PEOPLE 👏🏻 MADE 👏🏻THOSE! 👏🏻
I think we are so desensitized to CGI-everything now thanks to ongoing demand for more epic set pieces to justify massive budgets that we automatically assume something so fantastical and over-the-top and dazzling can’t possibly be real. And while I understand and recognize that digital effects are a key component to most movies made today, I find myself being more drawn to pictures that use more practical effects and physical sets, because those look so much more tangible and enjoyable on screen. That’s part of why Barbie Land was so immediately familiar—I *had* one of those Dream Houses and they made it a reality. You can tell that nearly every aspect of Barbie was made with a lot of love and dedication and it reflects beautifully in the final result.
Best Director
My Pick: N/A (Greta Gerwig for Barbie)
Likely Winner: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
Dark Horse: Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall
Oof. Best Director has felt like a foregone conclusion since before Barbenheimer erupted last summer, and it became even more so after the nominations were announced and our bestlie Greta Gerwig was not among them. She was previously nominated for directing and writing the excellent Lady Bird, as well as for the Little Women adapted screenplay, so it's not like this is her first rodeo, but it just sucks–a lot–that she didn't even get a nod for leading one of the more important and iconic movies in a decade that also happened to be wildly successful and drenched in so much pink it caused a pink paint shortage.
To be fair, Nolan has actually not won an Oscar before despite several many nominations over the years, which feels like some Mandela Effect shit because I could have sworn he won for Dunkirk, but 2018 was actually the Year of Del Toro and everyone’s favorite sexy fishman. (Yes, I still love The Shape of Water, deal with it). So on the bright side, this could be a big year for first-time winners, which would make me happy. I'm also a huge fan of writer/directors in general, so when someone wins for both, I fully recognize the hustle and respect the game.
In the grand scheme of the shitshow that is our world at the moment, Gerwig's snub is not really a tragedy, but it is disappointing, which is another thing we’ve become used to with the Oscars. It’s disappointing that there are only a couple of movies written and directed by women to choose from in the first place, let alone to be nominated. It’s disappointing that there isn’t more variety and diversity in the nominations, and that it took a complete retooling of the Academy voting system to even allow more films to break through.
And while it’s a little disappointing that Nolan or Scorsese will probably win, I’m calling Justine Triet as the dark horse to upset best director and maybe give us a little pleasant surprise near the end of the evening, instead of the same shit, different day.
Best Actor
My Pick: N/A (Barry Keoghan, Saltburn)
Likely Winner: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Dark Horse: Coleman Domingo, Rustin
Again, it’s basically been a foregone conclusion as soon as that photos Cillian Murphy in his Oppenheimer hat hit the Internet more than a year ago. This is his first nomination, however, which is pretty cool, and to win on your first nomination is some Streisand-level shit. And he was good in Oppenheimer, sure, but for me he wasn’t like, transcendent or anything–especially compared to our Short King of Weird Lil' Dudes Barry Keoghan wildin' alllllllll the way out (and then some!) in Saltburn.
Too often it feels like "unhinged" isn't really a term that gets bandied about when it comes to Best Actor winners–usually the awards are given to very serious actors playing very serious, dignified roles. The most recent weirdo Best Actor wins were Joaquin Phoenix for Joker (ick), and Daniel Day-Lewis in the There Will Be Blood, and since then it's been literally almost all historical figures: Sean Penn as Harvey Milk, Colin Firth as King George, Day-Lewis again as Abraham Lincoln, Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking, Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill, Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury, Will Smith as Richard Williams. Throw in a morbidly obese Brendan Fraser, Leo DiCaprio getting ravaged by a bear, and Matthew McConaughey in 80's AIDS drag and you get the sense that none of these actors are having much of a blast in their efforts to win Oscar gold. I want to see more awards given out to people who are clearly having a blast AND delivering iconic performances, please.
Side note: Odds are slim to none, but it would be really cool if Coleman Domingo won for Rustin. I've yet to watch it, but it’s his first nomination, too, and he would be the first out gay actor to win and for a portraying a gay civil rights icon as well. Neat!
Best Actress
My Pick & Likely Winner: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Dark Horse: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Best Actress is a bit juicier and more competitive this year, but it’s basically Lily Gladstone’s to lose. Believe all the hype about her lead role as Mollie Burke in Killers of the Flower Moon—she is quiet and contemplative, sure, but she can portray oceans of emotion simmering below the surface throughout her character’s many trials and tribulations. She also recently guest-starred on a couple of Reservation Dogs episodes as an incarcerated mom, and her naturalism was heartbreaking and hopeful at the same time. Just a brilliant performer, and I hope her upward trajectory continues.
Emma Stone was great in Poor Things, but just not on Gladstone’s level. Much like Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer, Carey Mulligan in Maestro seems like an accessory to advance the narrative of The Great Yet Tortured Genius Man. The only one I’d put even close to Gladstone is Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall. And much like Gladstone, Huller is understated but also succeeds at portraying someone just barely suppressing waves of emotions unacceptable to polite society—she gets some level of catharsis, however, as well as a semblance of resolution. Also, she speaks three languages in it, so that could count for something?
Best Picture
My Pick: Barbie
Likely Winner: Oppenheimer
Dark Horse: The Zone of Interest
If you've been paying attention for the last eight months or in case you’re just now sensing a theme, Barbie is my pick for Best Pic, but I harbor no illusions it will actually win. I’ve accepted that Oppenheimer will probably sweep the major end-of-night awards and we can all go to sleep in peace pretending that this year we really will get up and be at work on time in the morning.
However, I do think The Zone of Interest could really get up in there and fuck some shit up. It’s up for both International Feature and Best Picture, and I feel like there’s a nonzero chance it could win both.
My overall predictions for the night? Oppenheimer wins the big three and both actor categories, at the very least. Killers of the Flower Moon gets a few wins to make us Americans feel better about so many British and Australian folks winning more and more of these awards every year. We’ll probably see one or two wins for Poor Things to help the horny history nerds forget that Saltburn was completely stiffed. And there’s a solid chance of a sad song win for Barbie, as a treat.
As much as Hollywood loves telling the same story ten different ways with often increasingly diminishing returns, we were pretty spoiled by last year’s Every Feel Everywhere All At Once show: EEAAO nailed Best Picture and 3 out of 4 acting category wins (all first-time wins for some of the hardest working, iconic performers out there) plus Editing, Directing, and Original Screenplay–all gorgeously deserved and graciously accepted. This year feels like it might be an attempt to pendulum swing back to the status quo somewhat, with familiar names and prestige historical dramas poised to retake their claim on the awards. Maybe it’ll be good to find some equilibrium there among the lean COVID years, the ongoing streaming and IP wars, and last summer’s joyful box office resurgence, but I can't help but want more new, original, exciting, wild and straight-up weird movies to get more representation at the industry's biggest evening.
BONUS: Dune Pt. 2 is out now, which gives us hope for a sci-fi awards sweep next year along with fairly good odds that we’ll get both Zendaya AND Flo Pugh gracing our red carpet with glamour tonight. We'll take the wins where we can, sweet babes.
That's a wrap for this edition of The Enthusiast, almost as late and as long-running as the Oscar telecast itself! This is a subscriber-only post because I love you and you should have nice things. Stay tuned for more this coming weekend, and get pumped because we're just a few weeks away from the first day of Spring!
Getting a little closer to fine,
LKH
